There’s some cautious optimism from Sage about falling numbers of cases in the lead-up to Christmas, though the PM has been warned by Patrick Vallance that he must be prepared to trigger Plan B if needed.
Plan B (basically, a heightened level of awareness about virus spread, the introduction of mandatory CoViD passports, a return to compulsory face coverings, and advice on working from home) is being seen as a very costly option – up to £18bn if it were to run throughout the winter and to the end of March 2022.